Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 24.372601 28.753294 34.128287 41.361343 51.092681 6.413627e+01 8.371681e+01
2025-02-02 20.109505 25.464893 32.820036 44.185579 62.432700 9.310325e+01 1.560794e+02
2025-02-09 16.489662 21.642761 29.149108 41.677056 64.058903 1.078862e+02 2.233461e+02
2025-02-16 14.951754 20.297898 28.539378 43.404591 73.190801 1.430338e+02 4.039269e+02
2025-02-23 13.454347 18.699763 27.117798 43.197662 78.446002 1.749654e+02 6.966312e+02
2025-03-02 12.267515 17.380338 25.863095 42.879147 83.303640 2.120945e+02 1.310662e+03
2025-03-09 11.443934 16.516711 25.211534 43.534134 90.918694 2.707932e+02 3.477875e+03
2025-03-16 10.422686 15.197846 23.532906 41.599534 90.739227 2.995827e+02 7.884991e+03
2025-03-23 9.777700 14.442633 22.775636 41.508486 96.015098 3.687454e+02 7.794427e+04
2025-03-30 8.962047 13.313698 21.167533 39.116895 93.008766 3.855345e+02 7.881563e+06
2025-04-06 8.201473 12.222262 19.520404 36.353816 87.799262 3.806915e+02 NaN
2025-04-13 7.598169 11.366358 18.253338 34.317281 84.495189 3.880159e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 7.819979 12.021987 20.096090 40.569965 116.527751 9.267411e+02 NaN
2025-04-27 7.668173 11.980414 20.519383 43.332696 138.443708 1.848939e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 7.135243 11.176935 19.219508 40.893525 133.091017 1.979601e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 6.950587 11.020501 19.306823 42.573119 151.794429 4.317786e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 6.654695 10.624723 18.814976 42.371981 159.854131 7.889057e+03 NaN
2025-05-25 6.378344 10.246657 18.322006 42.062356 167.381625 1.693668e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 6.181258 10.010308 18.128475 42.699030 182.988602 1.138627e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 5.857040 9.499630 17.245109 40.818150 177.498034 2.161313e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 5.656074 9.224956 16.896096 40.729603 187.226114 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 5.349184 8.719937 15.957975 38.402777 175.605392 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 5.039040 8.196377 14.947399 35.712276 159.736462 3.004153e+06 NaN